The 2024 EU Parliament elections, which were held together with local government elections, have reshaped the political map in Hungary. Only four parties/coalitions will send MEPs to the EU Parliament. The governing right-wing party, Fidesz, secured 45% of the votes and will have 11 MEPs, which is two fewer than in the last mandate. Meanwhile opposition parties will share the remaining 10 seats of Hungary’s 21 seat allocation. Of note, is that Tisza, a new centre right party of just 2 months old, led by former Fidez member Peter Magyar obtained 30% of the votes and 7 MEPs. The coalition of left-wing parties received 8% of the votes which gives them 2 seats. Whilst far-right party, Mi Hazánk, with 7% of the votes will send 1 MEP. The results did come as quite a shock as prior to the elections, Orban’s party was projected to gain seats however, the emergence of Tisza split the vote and has given Orban his worst results since coming to power in 2010.

What are the implications?

1. Hungarian representation in the EU: there is much speculation around which Groups parties will align themselves to, however, what is clear is that Hungary will have a more centrist voice in the next mandate. It should be noted that given position taken by some political Groups that it will not work with those in the ECR or ID, Fidesz’s amendments may often be disregarded. That being said, there is an opportunity for this to be capitalised on by Tisz, who will likely not sit in the same Group as Fidesz and are due to join the EPP. With 7 seats, this will be a significant opportunity for Hungarian policies to be put through the largest group.

2. Unlikely to support Von der Leyen: Whilst the election may have returned a weakened Fidesz, Orban will still be the Prime Minister and his party will still have the most seats. As such, Orban will still oppose the nomination of Ursula Von der Leyen in the Council and there will be 11 votes cast against her in the Parliament. It is not clear how Tisz will vote.

3. The Article 7 Procedure: Hungary has been under the procedure since 2018 and recent Council discussions have indicated that this may be upgraded to take away Hungary’s voting rights. Whilst described as ‘the nuclear option’ The Belgian Council Presidency seem to believe the time is right. The impact of this would see Hungary lose its ability to hold up EU decision-making but also create pressure domestically on its waning influence. This, coupled with weakened results on a local level may force the hand of Fidesz.

4. Hungarian Council Presidency: on 1 July, Hungary is due to take over the Council rotating presidency. However, given that Hungary is currently on the Article 7 procedure, which may well be upgraded to having its voting power taken away, there is discussion from some Member States as to whether it should be skipped – albeit this is unlikely. During its presidency, Hungary will be able to dictate what the EU’s agenda will be for 6 months. Hungary has been seen as obstructing EU decision-making on matters such as giving military aid to Ukraine, sanctions against Russian and advancing discussions on Ukraine entering the EU and as such, it will be interesting to see how this is reflected in its priorities.

Overall, the 2024 EU Parliament elections have moved Hungary from the right towards the political centre. It is expected that Hungarian MEPs will be more supportive of mainstream European politics, however, it will have little impact on the “unorthodox” attitude of the current Hungarian government and on its ongoing legal procedures with the EU Commission.

Authored by Laszlo Partos, and Lavan Thasarathakumar.