Spring into 2025: Key Trends in Global Cartel Enforcement

1. The rise of digital evidence and investigative technologies
2.  Resurgence of dawn raids and leniency applications 
3. Expanded enforcement through criminal liability and civil litigation 
4. Focus on procurement collusion and domestic markets 
5. International collaboration and the role of emerging markets 
6. 'Atypical' cartels and exchanges of information 
7. Continuing enforcement in labor markets 
8. Sustainability and ESG moving into the focus
9. Political shifts reshaping and creating new competition agencies 

Companies are responding by strengthening their antitrust compliance programs with a strong emphasis on 'atypical' cartel allegations and technology.

Key trend #1: The rise of digital evidence and investigative technologies

The adoption of sophisticated data analytics tools is continuing to drive cartel investigations. Authorities now utilize machine learning algorithms and data platforms to detect suspicious pricing patterns, collusion, and bid-rigging activities. In 2025, this trend continues to grow, with enforcement agencies leveraging these technologies to identify cartels proactively rather than reactively. 

Digital forensics plays an increasing role in cartel investigations as individuals use encrypted communication channels and social media chats to coordinate activities. Investigators are honing their skills to extract evidence from smartphones, messaging apps, and cloud-based services, ensuring no stone is left unturned. 

Key trend #2: Resurgence of dawn raids and leniency applications

Following the pause during the pandemic, antitrust authorities are continuing to make use of dawn raids - unannounced inspections - to uncover evidence of cartel behavior. This resurgence is driven by an increase in ex-officio investigations of cartel enforcement agencies as well as a commitment to deter anti-competitive practices through surprise and thorough investigations. Business premises are usually targeted, although private homes have also been subject to inspections. 

The intensified enforcement environment has also led to a – although still rather limited - rise in leniency applications, including in Europe. Companies implicated in cartels are again more willing to self-report violations in exchange for reduced penalties, reaffirming leniency programs as a critical tool for regulators to dismantle cartels effectively. On the same vein, whistleblowing by employees have also seen a resurgence driven by the national transposition of the EU Whistleblowing Directive in EU member states. 

Key trend #3: Expanded enforcement through criminal liability and civil litigation 

The global cartel enforcement landscape shows a trend towards looking beyond administrative penalties, through an increase in criminal prosecution and civil damages claims. Authorities in several jurisdictions are increasingly pursuing criminal charges against individuals and companies involved in cartel conducts, which underscores their gravity. 

In addition, civil antitrust damages claims are continuing to rise as a significant complement to public antitrust enforcement. In addition to typical cartel damages follow-on claims, claimants are more and more claiming antitrust damages on the basis of abuse of dominance allegations or in connection with other allegations, e.g. data privacy or consumer law violations. 

This dual approach – that seeks to combine public and private enforcement – demonstrates a 360-degree strategy of antitrust legislative pushes aimed to take down cartels and provide effective means to compensate those affected by the anti-competitive conduct. Competition policy initiatives in Europe providing a level of protection to leniency applicants in follow-on damages claims may further spur this trend.

Key trend #4: Focus on procurement collusion and domestic markets 

Public procurement processes remain a prime target for cartels, leading to inflated prices and diminished value for taxpayers. Authorities are intensifying efforts to detect and penalize collusion in this area, leveraging advanced analytics and whistleblower programs to identify suspicious activities. 

In the U.S., the Antitrust Division’s Procurement Collusion Strike Force is expected to aggressively pursue bid-rigging, procurement fraud, and grant and program funding collusion. While international cartels often dominate headlines, domestic markets remain a significant area of focus for national antitrust agencies. Enforcement agencies are prioritizing cases that impact local economies, ensuring fair competition and protecting consumers from anti-competitive practices within their borders.

Key trend #5: International collaboration and the role of emerging markets

International collaboration among antitrust enforcers has gained renewed traction, as cross-border investigations and multi-agency coordination prove essential to tackling cartels operating in multiple jurisdictions. At the same time, emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are bolstering their antitrust enforcement capabilities. 

These regions are increasingly adopting modern tools and training initiatives, fostering a level playing field in global commerce. Despite progress, challenges such as limited resources and institutional inefficiencies persist. However, with technical assistance from developed nations and international organizations, these barriers are gradually being addressed. 

Key trend #6: 'Atypical' cartels and exchanges of information

'Atypical' cartel conduct remains in the focus of cartel enforcers across the globe. Labor markets are continuing to emerge as a critical area of scrutiny, with wage-fixing and no-poach agreements drawing heightened attention in an increasing number of markets (see Key Trend #7). Sustainability and broader Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations are increasingly intertwined with competition policies. Authorities are examining whether certain sustainability initiatives among competitors facilitate collusion (see Key Trend #8). Other focus enforcement areas in the 'atypical' cartel space are competition in innovation, algorithmic collusion, as well as coordinated advertising boycotts and content moderation policies. 

In addition, the EU Commission just recently emphasized again unlawful exchanges of information as a particular enforcement focus under the new Competition Commissioner Ribera. This includes exchanges of information using new technologies and tools as well as rather old fashion means, such as public channels, earning calls, etc. 

Key trend #7: Continuing enforcement in labor markets

Labor markets are becoming a focal point for antitrust enforcement, with regulators scrutinizing wage-fixing and no-poach agreements. Such practices limit worker mobility and suppress wages, violating competition laws. Going forward, we expect authorities to ramp up investigations and penalties in these areas. In the U.S., DOJ’s Antitrust Division, which has pursued these cases since 2016, has stated that there will be continued enforcement in this area. In Europe, we are seeing several cases at EU member state level as well as now also European Union level. 

Competition authorities are increasingly partnering with labor and employment agencies to identify and address anti-competitive practices in the workforce. This collaboration ensures a comprehensive approach to protecting worker rights and fostering fair labor markets. 

Key trend #8: Sustainability and ESG moving into the focus

Sustainability and broader ESG considerations are increasingly intertwined with competition policies. Authorities are examining whether certain sustainability initiatives among competitors inadvertently facilitate collusion, either through anti-competitive agreements or exchange of commercially sensitive information. 

Under the still developing ESG regulatory landscape in Europe companies doing business in Europe are obliged to comply with broad ESG requirements, mainly in their supply chain due diligence and sustainability reporting activities. These requirements are often quite burdensome on companies leaving them feeling overwhelmed with the mere amount of due diligence requirements and data points for ESG reporting. This often leads to an increasing urge towards collaboration, or at least exchange of information with competitors in this space. 

At the same time, recent developments in the U.S. indicate antitrust enforcement ambitions against competitor collaborations in the area of sustainability and climate change. This poses a challenging environment for global companies requiring careful navigation of ESG commitments and collaboration with competitors on both sides of the Atlantic. 

Key trend #9: Political shifts reshaping and creating new competition agencies

Global political changes are driving the transformation and creation of competition authorities. Newly elected governments seem to be prioritizing economic sovereignty and domestic market protection, leading to stronger enforcement against anti-competitive practices that threaten local industries. 

Simultaneously, some few jurisdictions are rapidly developing competition laws – as in the case of Guatemala at the end of 2024 - and establishing new authorities to address the growing concerns over market concentration and anti-competitive conducts. This evolving landscape poses challenges for international cooperation. While cross-border investigations seem to remain essential, different enforcement priorities could complicate international cooperation. Next year, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) - including its Chapter 21 - will be negotiated and could set new principles applicable to the competition landscape among the U.S., Canada, and México. 

Conclusion & practical steps

As we go forward into the second half of the decade, we can expect cartel enforcement – both public and private - to continue to evolve against the backdrop of technological innovation, global political challenges, and heightened regulatory scrutiny. To navigate this dynamic landscape and ensure antitrust compliance, companies should adopt practical steps, including: 

1. Implementing robust compliance programs: Develop comprehensive antitrust compliance policies tailored to your industry and including new and 'atypical' topics such as labor markets, ESG collaboration, and algorithmic collusion. Conduct regular trainings to educate employees about competition laws and the consequences of violations. 
2. Encouraging a culture of compliance: Promote ethical behavior and accountability at all levels of the organization. Ensure that employees feel empowered to report suspicious activities through anonymous channels. 
3. Engaging legal expertise: Consult antitrust experts early in the game to review business practices, partnerships, and joint ventures for antitrust compliance risks. 
4. Preparing for Dawn Raids: Update or develop protocols to handle unexpected inspections by competition authorities. Train employees on how to respond during such situations. 
5. Leveraging leniency programs: Stay informed about leniency policies in relevant jurisdictions and have internal decision making processes in place to be prepared to self-report potential violations and mitigate penalties for the company.